A newly identified asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has been highlighted as a potential threat to Earth with an estimated 1-in-43 chance of impact in 2032. The space rock, measuring approximately 55 metres in diameter, was detected on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. While it is not expected to pose an existential threat, experts have cautioned that if it were to collide with Earth, significant destruction could occur, potentially wiping out an entire city. The energy released upon impact is estimated to be around 8 megatons, significantly higher than the atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima in 1945.
Potential Impact and Monitoring Efforts
According to NASA’s estimates, the asteroid is currently travelling away from Earth, but its trajectory includes multiple close approaches in the coming decades. The highest probability of impact has been calculated for December 22, 2032. Further monitoring will refine these predictions, with scientists closely tracking its movement through the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Presently, 2024 YR4 has been classified at Level 3 on the scale, indicating a need for observation and preparedness due to its potential impact risk within the next ten years.
Scientific Assessments and Planetary Defence Measures
As reported by Live Science, while most asteroids flagged at this level are eventually downgraded to Level 0, continued surveillance remains essential. Efforts by space agencies, including NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, have been focused on developing methods to deflect potentially hazardous objects. The success of previous tests has demonstrated that asteroid trajectories can be altered, providing a possible course of action should 2024 YR4’s impact probability increase in the future. Until further assessments are completed, experts stress the importance of continuous observation and preparedness against potential asteroid threats.
